The Role of Data and Intuition in Product Manager Decision Making

While making important revenue choices, today’s leading companies use data. Furthermore, a recent poll of more than 1,000 top leaders showed that companies that use data a lot are three times more likely to say that their decisions are better than companies that use data less.

Data collection and analysis that works well helps people who make decisions confirm, comprehend, and measure complicated problems that need smart answers. 

However, numbers alone can’t always give us an accurate snapshot. This is particularly so when the problems are vague or hard to pin down. 

That’s when our intuition—those well-honed feelings that come from knowledge, experience, and good sense—becomes very important for making decisions.

Lots of people think of intuition as an alternative to reason. When we think about matters in this way, intuition is often seen as a measuring stick that doesn’t belong in the modern era of science and facts.

When it works properly, intuition is a strong way to spot patterns, which is something our brains are naturally good at. But recognizing trends and following your gut can result in partiality.

Intuition and data are not always comparable, and we tend to value data more than intuition. But in the fast-paced and complicated business world of today, decisions are better made when the best parts of each are used together.

Data vs Intuition has always been a hot topic in the corporate world. Let’s take a deeper dive into the segregation of the same.

Defining Data-Driven and Intuition-Based Decisions

When making decisions, you often find yourself balancing between data-driven and intuition-based approaches. Each has its place, and knowing when to use which can make all the difference.

 “The world’s most valuable resource is no longer oil, but data.” – The Economist

Data-driven decisions rely on metrics, numbers, and customer insights. If you’re launching a product, data like user behavior, A/B test results, or conversion rates can guide your choices. 

Data provides objectivity, helping you make informed decisions without guessing. It’s especially crucial in today’s tech-heavy world for optimizing products and improving ROI. However, data can sometimes feel cold and may not always tell the full story.

“Intuition becomes increasingly valuable in the new information society precisely because there is so much data.” – John Naisbitt

Intuition-based decisions, on the other hand, are rooted in gut feelings and experience. There are times when you just know something is right, even if the numbers don’t fully back it up. 

Intuition allows for quicker decisions and comes in handy when data is limited or unclear. However, intuition can be biased and might lead to riskier outcomes.

The real magic happens when you combine both. By blending solid data with your own instincts, you can make well-rounded decisions that are both informed and human-centered. It’s all about striking the right balance.

What do Industry Leaders Say?

When it comes to balancing data and intuition, industry leaders have some valuable insights. Michael Nolting, Senior Director of Digital Services and Data Analytics at Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, and Michael Sasaki, former Vice President of Global Head of Customer Success and Support at Mitek, share their perspectives on how their companies approach decision-making.

For Nolting, the balance between data and intuition is about knowing when to rely on each. At Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, data is preferred when optimizing processes step by step.

But in cases where there’s insufficient data, whether due to missing information, too many variables, or the complexity of the decision, intuition comes into play. These are often high-stakes decisions, like launching new services where data alone can’t provide all the answers.

He emphasizes the importance of democratizing data within the organization. By making data accessible to everyone, as they do with Volkswagen’s ride-hailing service MOIA, employees can understand customer behavior and validate hypotheses more quickly. 

This not only makes decisions more informed but also lowers the risk by turning those validated hypotheses into actionable knowledge.

Michael Sasaki takes a slightly different approach, seeing data, intuition, and experience as a hybrid. He believes data should inform intuition, but experience plays a crucial role in guiding decision-making. 

For him, it’s not about choosing one over the other—it’s about how they work together. The data helps shape your gut instinct, and over time, experience with data-driven decisions leads to better outcomes.

Both leaders highlight that while data provides a foundation, intuition and experience fill in the gaps when data alone isn’t enough. It’s this balance of data and intuition, rooted in experience, that ultimately drives smarter, more informed business decisions.

In the end, it’s clear that effective decision-making in the modern business world requires a combination of both data and intuition, supported by a deep well of experience.

When to Use Each Approach

When it comes to decision-making, both intuition and data have their moments to shine. Knowing when to lean on each approach can save you time and help you make better choices.

A) When to Use Intuition

Out of a sample of 36 CEOs, 85% confirmed that intuition—in the form of rules of thumb (ROTs)—was central to their decision-making process (Maidique, 2014).

Intuition is perfect for situations where you need to make fast decisions with limited customer insights. If you’re dealing with a new product or market and there’s little data to pull from, your experience and gut instincts can guide you. 

Intuition kicks in when the path ahead isn’t clear-cut, and you need to rely on your understanding of patterns or past experiences. It’s like that moment when you just know something is the right move, even if you can’t fully explain why.

This also comes into play when tackling complex or ambiguous problems. When the problem is too tangled to be solved through pure data, your brain draws from years of subconscious learning and observation. 

Sometimes, the logical route doesn’t reveal the whole picture, and that’s where intuition can help connect the dots in ways that data may miss.

Now, this brings us to an interesting point: intuitive vs. counterintuitive findings in data. Intuitive insights are those that align with what you expected—things that feel like common sense. 

But sometimes, data reveals something counterintuitive, surprising you with insights that go against your initial gut feeling. 

For example, you might assume customers want more features, but data could show that simplifying your product leads to higher engagement. It’s a reminder that while intuition is valuable, it’s not infallible.

B) When to Use Data-Driven Decisions

On the flip side, when you have access to extensive customer data, that’s when a data-driven approach becomes essential. 

If your decision affects a lot of people or needs solid evidence to back it up, like launching a new feature or revamping a user interface, data is your best friend. 

Numbers don’t lie, and they can reveal trends or patterns that aren’t immediately obvious. They help take the guesswork out of decisions, especially when there’s a lot at stake.

Data is especially useful when you need validation. Let’s say your intuition tells you that your product should move in a particular direction. Before making any big changes, you can use data to test that hunch and ensure it’s the right move. 

This way, you get the best of both worlds—using your instincts to generate ideas and data to confirm whether those ideas hold up.

Combining the Two Leads to Better Decisions

When it comes to decision-making, relying solely on data or intuition can sometimes limit your perspective. But when you combine the two, you create a decision-making powerhouse that gives you a more well-rounded view.

Intuition is often shaped by years of experience and deep understanding. It’s what helps you make those snap decisions when you don’t have all the information in front of you.

However, intuition isn’t perfect. It’s influenced by biases, personal preferences, and emotions, which can lead to misguided choices, especially in more complex scenarios.

On the other hand, data offers objectivity. It provides hard facts and measurable insights into customer behavior, trends, and performance.

But as valuable as data is, it doesn’t always capture the bigger picture. It can be limited by what’s been measured, and without context, it can miss the emotional or human aspect of decision-making.

By combining the two, you get the best of both worlds. Data ensures your decisions are grounded in reality, providing solid evidence to back up your choices. 

Meanwhile, intuition adds the human touch, helping you interpret the data in ways that align with your experience and gut instincts. Together, they create a more holistic view of customer needs, blending factual accuracy with personal insight.

This balanced approach leads to better decisions because you’re not just relying on numbers or gut feelings alone. 

You’re making choices based on objective insights, while also considering the nuances and complexities that data alone might miss. It’s like having the perfect blend of logic and instinct to guide you.

What to Do When Data and Intuition Don’t Match?

When data and intuition don’t match, it can feel like you’re caught between two conflicting forces. 

On one hand, you’ve got hard numbers telling you one thing, but on the other, your gut is saying something else entirely. So, what do you do when these two don’t line up?

The Intuition Bias

First off, it’s important to recognize that intuition, while valuable, can be biased. It’s shaped by personal experiences, emotions, and even subconscious patterns you’ve picked up over the years. 

Sometimes, this gut feeling can lead you down the right path—especially when you’re dealing with situations that aren’t easy to quantify.

However, it can also be misleading, especially if you’re holding onto outdated assumptions or letting emotions cloud your judgment. 

That’s why it’s important to pause and ask yourself if your intuition is being driven by something other than logic or current reality.

Data Isn’t Always Fast Enough

Data isn’t perfect either. It’s objective, yes, but sometimes it’s slow to catch up. You might be working in a fast-paced industry where trends shift overnight, and the data just hasn’t caught up yet. 

Or maybe the data doesn’t tell the full story because it’s missing key variables like customer sentiment or market shifts. 

So, relying solely on data can lead to decisions that are technically correct but miss out on the human, emotional element that’s equally important.

Techniques to Reconcile the Two

When data and intuition clash, don’t view it as a roadblock, but rather an opportunity to dig deeper. Here are a few techniques to help you reconcile the conflict:

Dive deeper into the data: 

Before you dismiss your intuition, take a closer look at the data. Are there gaps in what’s being measured? Could there be external factors at play that the data doesn’t capture? 

Sometimes, data sets are incomplete or lag behind real-time events. Digging deeper may reveal insights that weren’t obvious at first glance, which could validate your gut feeling.

Check your intuition:

It’s equally important to question your gut. Are you reacting to the current situation, or are you influenced by past experiences that may not apply here? 

Talk through your thought process with a colleague or mentor. A fresh pair of eyes can help point out any biases you might be overlooking and offer an objective perspective.

Run small experiments: 

If the conflict between data and intuition remains, consider running a small test or pilot. This allows you to collect more relevant data while still respecting your instincts. 

For example, if your intuition suggests a different marketing strategy but the data doesn’t fully support it, try a limited campaign first. This lets you validate your gut feeling without risking the whole operation.

Combine both approaches: 

Sometimes, the best answer lies in combining both data and intuition. You might use your gut to come up with ideas and then validate those ideas through data. Or vice versa, let data point you in a direction, but trust your intuition to guide the finer details.

Applying Throughout the Product Development Process

Applying both data and intuition throughout the product development process can make a significant difference in the quality and success of what you build. 

Whether you’re collecting data to inform your roadmap, tracking key performance indicators (KPIs) to ensure you’re on the right track, or learning from past projects to shape future decisions, blending both approaches leads to better outcomes.

Collecting Data to Inform Roadmap and Requirements

Early in the product development process, data plays a critical role in shaping your roadmap and product requirements. 

You can’t just rely on your gut to decide what features or enhancements will be valuable to users. This is where customer feedback, market research, and usage analytics come into play.

By collecting data on customer pain points and usage patterns, you get a clearer picture of what your users actually need—not just what you think they need. 

For instance, analyzing user behavior might show that they’re dropping off at a specific point in the customer journey, which highlights an area for improvement. Or maybe feedback surveys reveal a feature that users have been asking for repeatedly. 

This information helps you prioritize which features to develop and ensures that your product roadmap aligns with actual demand.

That said, intuition shouldn’t be completely sidelined. Your experience and understanding of your industry can help you foresee trends or unmet needs that may not be immediately obvious in the data. 

Sometimes, the data points you in one direction, but your instincts tell you there’s a bigger opportunity on the horizon. Balancing both allows you to create a roadmap that’s both data-driven and future-focused.

Tracking KPIs for Continuous Improvement

Once your product is out in the world, tracking KPIs becomes essential for understanding how well it’s performing. 

Metrics like customer retention, engagement rates, and revenue growth provide concrete feedback on whether your product is hitting the mark. 

These data points offer clear indicators of what’s working and what needs adjustment, allowing for continuous improvement.

Let’s say one of your KPIs is user retention, and you notice a drop in the numbers. The data tells you there’s a problem, but figuring out why this is happening might require more than just a surface-level analysis. 

This is where intuition comes into play again. Your team’s collective experience can help interpret the data in a more nuanced way, leading you to deeper insights. 

Maybe the drop in retention isn’t because of a product flaw but due to an external factor, like a new competitor entering the market. Your instincts can guide you in uncovering the true cause and creating a solution that addresses the real issue.

Using Lessons for Future Intuition

The beauty of blending data and intuition is that, over time, they start to feed into each other. The more data you gather throughout your product’s lifecycle, the sharper your instincts become for future projects. 

Each success, each failure, and each tweak you make based on metrics adds to your mental library of experiences. 

This accumulated knowledge shapes your intuition for future decisions, allowing you to anticipate issues or spot opportunities that aren’t immediately evident in the data.

For example, after working on several product launches, you might develop an instinct for what makes a marketing campaign successful, even if the initial data doesn’t seem to back it up. 

Or, perhaps you’ve learned that certain KPIs are better predictors of long-term success than others, giving you a gut feeling about where to focus your attention.

The Continuous Loop

Throughout the product development process, data and intuition should be in constant conversation. You collect data to guide your roadmap, track KPIs to measure progress, and use the lessons learned to refine your intuition for future projects. 

It’s a continuous loop that helps you make informed decisions while also keeping the human element front and center.

By applying both throughout the process, you’re not only building better products, but also becoming a better decision-maker over time. 

That balance of logic and instinct is key to ongoing success in product development.

Conclusion

“Optimally, intuition is conditioned by experience in the fields of data science, advanced analytics and artificial intelligence with a business orientation, as illustrated in Fig 2. At the same time, it is advisable to support the setting of corporate culture and an experienced analytical  team.” (Potan?ok, 2019)

An effective, balanced approach between data and intuition is the key to making smart, well-rounded decisions. 

Relying solely on data can make your decision-making feel rigid and slow, while leaning too heavily on intuition can lead to bias and missed opportunities. But when you combine the two, you tap into a powerful synergy that brings out the best of both worlds.

Data provides you with hard facts and insights that are grounded in reality, while intuition allows you to interpret those facts with the wisdom and experience you’ve built over time. 

Together, they create a decision-making process that is both informed and adaptable, helping you navigate complex situations with confidence.

In the end, it’s about finding the right balance. Trust the numbers to give you a solid foundation, but also listen to your gut when something doesn’t feel quite right. 

By blending data with intuition, you not only make better decisions, but you also create more thoughtful, flexible solutions that truly address your customer’s needs. It’s this balanced approach that sets you up for long-term success.