What Is Assumption Mapping? Definition and Overview

Imagine a scuba diver diving into the ocean only to find out they’ve forgotten to carry the oxygen tank with them. This is what it feels like to go on with a project without executing Assumption Mapping.

By laying out assumptions in your project clearly you can settle down on what really matters the most to your project and take them in the right direction. Grab your oxygen tanks and let’s dive into the Assumption Mapping together!

What Is Assumption Mapping?

Assumption Mapping is an easy but yet powerful tool that helps you recognize and prioritize assumptions made about a particular product.

You need to think of it as a way to outline what you believe to be true and then figure out which assumptions you need to test.

In product development, teams tend to assume a lot about user needs and market trends. Assumption mapping makes sure to get these guesses to the surface so that you can understand which ones could pose a risk if they happen to be wrong.

Assumptions are usually categorized into two main branches: certainty and relevance. Relevance refers to how important the assumption is for the project success, whereas certainty means how confident you are that it’s true.

This way, you can see which assumptions are filled with high impact as well as high uncertainty, you need to prioritize these tests first.

Assumption mapping is a great way to save your team more time, money as well as frustration by focusing efforts on verifying the riskiest assumptions early-on.

It’s a hands-on approach that helps keep projects on-course by promoting data-informed decisions over blind guesses. 

Doesn’t matter if you’re working on a new product or an existing one, it’s very valuable to steer smart/informed progress.

What Are the Benefits of Assumption Mapping?

Assumption mapping, when used correctly has awesome benefits making it a compelling tool for teams, especially when you take on new projects.

First, it helps in reducing risk by shedding light on assumptions early-on. When you outline these assumptions, you get to know where exactly the risk lies, hence allowing you to tackle potential issues before they hinder your project.

Next, it provides better focus and clarity for you and your team. It prioritizes the most critical assumptions that need verification making sure you don’t waste time on guesses. This helps you to keep your team streamlined and on track.

Another benefit is increased team alignment. Assumption mapping promotes the concept of a common understanding of what everyone believes to be true, making it way more simple to comply with goals and collaborate. 

It’s also a great way to stimulate continuous learning. It helps you examine and test assumptions so that you can make data-informed choices and boost confidence within your team.

Last but not the least, assumption mapping creates space for adaptability. With a clear view of assumptions, it’s easier to rotate swiftly if a new piece of information arises.

How Can You Start Assumption Mapping?

Initiating an assumption mapping is not as difficult as it seems, it’s usually a very straightforward process, making sure you add value to your project in the right direction. Here’s how it goes

Gather Your Team, Gather your Ideas: Get everyone involved and begin listing out every assumption related to the project. Think out of the box when it comes to customers, market needs including product features. Thumb rule – Thinking of anything you’re taking for granted to be true goes a long way in sorting your assumptions.

Certainty and Impact – Organize accordingly: After creating a list, organize them based on how certain your team is and what impact it can have on the project. You can create a matrix: one one side, you can rate the certainty ranging from low to high. 

On the other side, you can rate the impact it would have if it turns out to be wrong. Here, you clearly define which assumptions could turn out to be risky.

Prioritize Prime Assumptions: Aim to focus on assumptions that are both uncertain as well as high-impact. They could very much affect your project negatively in case they turn out to be wrong, so testing them should be your first priority.

Creating a Testing Plan: After following these steps, now you know what’s critical, you can set up a plan to verify or negate these assumptions. You can do this through customer interviews, surveys as well as small-scale experiments to get real data.

Review and Iterate: Assumption mapping isn’t a one-shot activity. You need to do reruns on your assumption mapping since information is very dynamic and disrupt your workflow if you don’t update and refine these assumptions.

How To Run an Assumptions Mapping Workshop

Setting up an assumptions mapping workshop helps bring the team together to recognize possible risks and make sure everyone’s on the same page. This is how can run a workshop in four-simple steps:

Assembling: Start out by explaining to your team about what an assumption mapping is and why it is important. Let them know the goal of the workshop and how assumptions can make or break the project’s success. You have now set the tone for a collaborative environment.

Gather Assumptions: Invite the participants to lay out assumptions in their mind about the project, especially those focused on market conditions, the product features and customer needs. You can jot down these pointers on a digital board, or sticky notes help too.

Map out the Assumptions: Outline an easy to understand 2×2 matrix with Certainty on one side and Impact on the other. Now, insert each assumption in the matrix depending on its certainty and potential impact. 

Testing and Hypotheses: Now that you have created a matrix too, you can focus on the elements with high impact and low certainty since they’re the riskiest. You need to develop hypotheses that you can test.

Go ahead with creating simple experiments to approve or nullify these assumptions to make sure your project moves forward swiftly. Testing always helps decrease uncertainty and improve decision making.

Conclusion

To conclude, assumption mapping is an impressive tool to identify, prioritize and test the assumptions that could pose a risk to the project in hand. 

It helps you visualize and gain clarity on assumptions to manage risk better and make data-driven decisions. 

Hence, assumption mapping provides you a clear path in understanding what matters to your project and bringing everyone together to focus efforts on the same. 

Give it a try, and the insights brought to the table might actually surprise you!